A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
